The Tale of 2 Williams
You don’t expect a guy with a changeup nicknamed The Airbender to implode. Not in the ninth. Not with a lead. But that’s exactly what’s happened to Devin Williams in 2025.
The Yankees brought in Williams this past off-season to lock games down - but with the bright lights of New York, Williams has turned into a different pitcher.
Two ERAs, One Reliever
Let’s start with the split that’s defined his season.
In the eighth inning or earlier, Williams has been solid: a 2.53 ERA, four hits allowed, and a strikeout rate that looks like vintage Milwaukee. But once he’s asked to close the door in the ninth? Chaos. A 10.03 ERA, blown saves, and walks that seem to appear out of nowhere.
“The runs count the same in the 7th inning,” Williams told reporters. “I don’t view [the 9th] as any different.”
The Bronx crowd - and the numbers - might disagree.
A Shift in Stuff
Williams was never a flamethrower, but he’s lost just enough velocity in 2025 to raise eyebrows. His fastball’s averaging 93.8 mph - down more than a tick from his norm. That’s not nothing.
And then there’s the changeup. The Airbender used to drop off a cliff. In 2024, it averaged over 42 inches of vertical movement. This year, it’s lost some of that drop - and added some runs. In plain English: it’s flattening out.
Hitters who used to swing over it are now squaring it up. The expected slugging against his changeup has jumped from .161 to a brutal .490.
Whiffs Vanishing, Walks Piling Up
Williams isn’t fooling hitters like he used to. His whiff rate has cratered. In 2023, his changeup got swinging strikes nearly 42% of the time. This year? Just 9.4%.
It’s not just bad luck - it’s command. His walk rate has spiked. He’s either nibbling too much and falling behind, or throwing fastballs over the heart of the plate to avoid another ball four.
And in the ninth, there’s no margin for error. Walk one, hang one, game over.
The Pressure Is Real
Let’s not pretend pitching in the Bronx in the ninth is the same as a quiet eighth in Milwaukee. Whether it’s adrenaline or mechanics, something changes when Williams steps out to close.
A turning point came on April 19. Yankees up four. Williams enters. Four hits, a walk, and a blown lead before he could get a second out.
It’s become a trend: he thrives in low or medium-leverage innings but unravels when the pressure spikes. The numbers back it up - his performance craters in save situations.
A Drop-off from 2024
Last season, Williams was one of the most dominant relievers in baseball. A 1.25 ERA. Barely any walks. Strikeouts everywhere.
This year? The strikeouts are down, the walks are up, and his FIP and xERA are a mess. Even with some bad luck - his BABIP is sky-high - the underlying data says the struggles are real.
It’s not just a few bloop hits. It’s a pitcher who’s not getting ahead, not finishing hitters, and not escaping jams.
Can He Turn It Around?
The Yankees still believe in the stuff. And when he’s on, you can see why - his hard-hit rate is elite, and his strikeout numbers are still better than average.
Maybe it’s fatigue. Maybe it’s pitch usage. Maybe it’s just the mental toll of being The Guy in the Bronx.
But for now, Aaron Boone is turning to Williams for save opportunities and a chance to rebuild confidence and rediscover the deception that made him elite.
Because if the Yankees want to go deep in October, they need the right version of Devin Williams - the one with the vanishing changeup, not the one searching for it in the ninth.